Allowance Optional Claiming
6f · DIRT · N1X · $115,000
| # | Horse | Post | Jockey | ML | Current | Oracle | Market | Edge | Fair | Tier | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Midnight CircuitT. Pletcher | 4 | L. Saez | 5.0–1 | 4.4–1 | 18.4% | 18.1% | +0.3% | 4.4–1 | B | 94% |
| 5 | Saratoga SignalC. Clement | 5 | D. Davis | 11.0–1 | 14.0–1 | 17.6% | 6.5% | +11.1% | 4.7–1 | A | 94% |
| 2 | Quiet ResolveB. Cox | 2 | F. Prat | 2.5–1 | 2.2–1 | 16.9% | 30.5% | -13.5% | 4.9–1 | B | 94% |
| 6 | Breakwater BayL. Rice | 6 | M. Franco | 4.0–1 | 5.8–1 | 16.5% | 14.3% | +2.1% | 5.1–1 | B | 94% |
| 3 | Copper LanternS. Asmussen | 3 | J. Rosario | 7.0–1 | 8.5–1 | 15.4% | 10.3% | +5.1% | 5.5–1 | A | 94% |
| 1 | North Star RoadC. Brown | 1 | I. Ortiz Jr. | 3.5–1 | 3.8–1 | 15.3% | 20.3% | -5.1% | 5.6–1 | B | 94% |
| 7 | First HorizonSCRATCHED | 7 | K. Carmouche | 9.0–1 | Removed before Oracle generation | ||||||
Primary exposure to the best confidence-adjusted overlay.
Place coverage reduces outcome variance while preserving the core thesis.
Selective exacta: the overlay wins over Oracle's strongest alternate.
Highest estimated-EV A horse anchors the plan.
Win/place coverage protects a high-probability alternate outcome.
A/B lane: the strongest overlay wins over the leading alternate.
B→A saver protects the reversed top-two order.
Secondary A/B lane retains exposure if the second overlay owns the pace.
Concentrated win exposure to Oracle's largest actionable disagreement.
Press the race thesis: the overlay wins over the most likely alternate.
Asymmetric second lane uses another genuine overlay, not random field coverage.
Small secondary win position preserves upside from the contrarian A horse.
Race evidence & model notes
Evidence cutoff2026-08-17T17:27:30.000Z
Odds snapshot2026-08-17T17:27:00.000Z
Modeldeterministic-form-v1
Provenancered-sun-fixture · sar-r5