Preliminary morning-line market2 races use TrackMaster M/L as a provisional baseline; 10 have a manual tote snapshot. Recalculate before wagering as tote prices move.
Oracle's contender wins over a primary key. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
Hit-Rate Layer
COVER#6 MODEST MACLEAN → #7 BUBSTER$2.00
Probability
16.6%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$6.03
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
COVER#6 MODEST MACLEAN → #1 TEUFLESDALE$4.00
Probability
7.1%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$14.06
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
COVER#8 TERM PREMIUM → #6 MODEST MACLEAN$3.00
Probability
6.7%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$14.98
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's secondary key wins over a primary key. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
COVER#6 MODEST MACLEAN → #4 BIG FROSTY$4.00
Probability
6.1%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$16.31
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
Oracle centers the race on #6 MODEST MACLEAN with #8 TERM PREMIUM as the secondary key. #6 MODEST MACLEAN supplies the strongest market disagreement and is used as genuine winning leverage. The Upside Core uses 6 opinionated orders, while 4 separate cover orders protect plausible high-probability outcomes. The primary key is also the market's most likely winner.
Payout pricing unavailable — opportunity ranking based on model and win-market pricing. Win market snapshot 8/20/2026, 4:27:52 PM. Exacta probabilities: plackett-luce-simulation-v1 (Oracle-based approximation).
Best longshot#2 L'IMPERATOR (FR)8.6% Oracle · 4.2% edge
Avoid#1 ROTHSCHILD3.2% Oracle · -12.6% edge
Oracle × EdgeManual tote snapshot · 8/22/2026, 5:10:33 PM · sorted by Oracle probability
Swipe horizontally to compare every metric →
#
Horse
Post
Jockey
ML reference
Working odds
Oracle
Market
Edge
Fair
Tier
Conf.
7
ARKHIPOVBrown Chad C
7
Prat Flavien
3.0–1
2.0–1
30.2%
26.3%
+3.9%
2.3–1
A
79%
5
SARDISKantarmaci Ilkay
5
Ortiz Jose L
6.0–1
5.0–1
25.1%
13.1%
+11.9%
3.0–1
A
86%
4
ASBURY PARK (GB)Brown Chad C
4
Franco Manuel
2.0–1
2.5–1
16.0%
22.5%
-6.6%
5.3–1
B
86%
6
THE HIDDEN CHAMBERDanner Kelsey
6
Gaffalione Tyler
8.0–1
11.0–1
9.6%
6.6%
+3.0%
9.4–1
C
94%
2
L'IMPERATOR (FR)Kingsley Jr A J
2
Kingsley Taylor
15.0–1
17.0–1
8.6%
4.4%
+4.2%
10.6–1
A
78%
3
MUTAAWIDCox Brad H
3
Ortiz Jr Irad
3.5–1
6.0–1
7.4%
11.3%
-3.9%
12.5–1
C
94%
1
ROTHSCHILDCasse Norm W
1
Saez Luis
5.0–1
4.0–1
3.2%
15.8%
-12.6%
30.5–1
C
90%
ArsenalPublished plan · four strategies
Using the published $51.00 race bankroll.
CONSERVATIVE$37.00
LOW RISK
WIN$18.00#5 SARDIS
Primary exposure to the best confidence-adjusted overlay.
PLACE$14.00#5 SARDIS
Place coverage reduces outcome variance while preserving the core thesis.
EXACTA$5.00#5 SARDIS → #7 ARKHIPOV
Selective exacta: the overlay wins over Oracle's strongest alternate.
VALUE$44.00
MEDIUM RISK
WIN$15.00#2 L'IMPERATOR (FR)
Highest estimated-EV A horse anchors the plan.
WIN / PLACE$20.00#5 SARDIS
Win/place coverage protects a high-probability alternate outcome.
EXACTA$4.00#2 L'IMPERATOR (FR) → #5 SARDIS
A/B lane: the strongest overlay wins over the leading alternate.
EXACTA$3.00#5 SARDIS → #2 L'IMPERATOR (FR)
B→A saver protects the reversed top-two order.
EXACTA$2.00#5 SARDIS → #4 ASBURY PARK (GB)
Secondary A/B lane retains exposure if the second overlay owns the pace.
AGGRESSIVE$51.00
HIGH RISK
WIN$25.00#2 L'IMPERATOR (FR)
Concentrated win exposure to Oracle's largest actionable disagreement.
EXACTA$15.00#2 L'IMPERATOR (FR) → #7 ARKHIPOV
Press the race thesis: the overlay wins over the most likely alternate.
EXACTA$7.00#5 SARDIS → #7 ARKHIPOV
Asymmetric second lane uses another genuine overlay, not random field coverage.
WIN$4.00#5 SARDIS
Small secondary win position preserves upside from the contrarian A horse.
EXACTA OPPORTUNITY$41.00
HIGH UPSIDE · $60.00 MAX
Maximum budget
$60.00
Recommended risk
$41.00
Amount held
$19.00
Combinations
10
Projected hit rate
53.4%
Primary key
#5 SARDIS
Secondary key
#7 ARKHIPOV
Leverage horse
#5 SARDIS
Avoid horse
#1 ROTHSCHILD
Payout coverage
6 / 42 (14.3%)
Upside Core
LEVERAGE#5 SARDIS → #7 ARKHIPOV$5.00
Probability
10.1%
Probable payout
$24.00
Fair payout
$9.88
Expected ROI
142.9%
Oracle's primary key wins over a secondary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#5 SARDIS → #2 L'IMPERATOR (FR)$5.00
Probability
3.1%
Probable payout
$118.00
Fair payout
$32.05
Expected ROI
268.2%
Oracle's primary key wins over a value runner. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#5 SARDIS → #6 THE HIDDEN CHAMBER$4.00
Probability
3.0%
Probable payout
$76.00
Fair payout
$33.29
Expected ROI
128.3%
Oracle's primary key wins over a value runner. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
BOMB#2 L'IMPERATOR (FR) → #5 SARDIS$4.00
Probability
2.3%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$43.10
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Speculative but model-supported overlay over primary key. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
BOMB#6 THE HIDDEN CHAMBER → #5 SARDIS$4.00
Probability
2.6%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$37.76
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Speculative but model-supported overlay over primary key. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
LEVERAGE#7 ARKHIPOV → #5 SARDIS$4.00
Probability
10.8%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$9.30
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's secondary key wins over a primary key. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
Hit-Rate Layer
COVER#7 ARKHIPOV → #4 ASBURY PARK (GB)$3.00
Probability
6.8%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$14.71
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's secondary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
COVER#5 SARDIS → #4 ASBURY PARK (GB)$5.00
Probability
5.5%
Probable payout
$29.00
Fair payout
$18.06
Expected ROI
60.5%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
COVER#4 ASBURY PARK (GB) → #5 SARDIS$3.00
Probability
4.9%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$20.21
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's contender wins over a primary key. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
COVER#7 ARKHIPOV → #6 THE HIDDEN CHAMBER$4.00
Probability
4.2%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$23.76
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's secondary key wins over a value runner. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
Oracle centers the race on #5 SARDIS with #7 ARKHIPOV as the secondary key. #5 SARDIS supplies the strongest market disagreement and is used as genuine winning leverage. The Upside Core uses 6 opinionated orders, while 4 separate cover orders protect plausible high-probability outcomes. The market favorite, #7 ARKHIPOV, remains a hit-rate consideration without replacing Oracle's #5 SARDIS thesis.
6 of 42 active combinations have probable payouts; remaining tickets use model and win-market pricing. Win market snapshot 8/22/2026, 5:10:33 PM. Exacta payout snapshot 8/22/2026, 5:16:12 PM from red-sun-manual-exacta. Exacta probabilities: plackett-luce-simulation-v1 (Oracle-based approximation).
Best longshot#4 BARREL ROLL15.2% Oracle · 9.5% edge
Avoid#1 POWERLINE23.5% Oracle · -20.6% edge
Oracle × EdgeManual tote snapshot · 8/22/2026, 5:50:50 PM · sorted by Oracle probability
Swipe horizontally to compare every metric →
#
Horse
Post
Jockey
ML reference
Working odds
Oracle
Market
Edge
Fair
Tier
Conf.
1
POWERLINEAsmussen Steven M
1
Ortiz Jose L
1.6–1
0.8–1
23.5%
44.2%
-20.6%
3.2–1
B
67%
4
BARREL ROLLBrown Chad C
4
Franco Manuel
8.0–1
13.0–1
15.2%
5.7%
+9.5%
5.6–1
B
42%
8
ART MUSEUMBrown Chad C
8
Prat Flavien
4.0–1
3.5–1
12.8%
17.7%
-4.9%
6.8–1
B
42%
7
SHOCKEDTagg Barclay
7
Saez Luis
12.0–1
29.0–1
11.2%
2.6%
+8.6%
7.9–1
C
34%
6
AMERICAN HISTORYPletcher Todd A
6
Velazquez John R
10.0–1
8.0–1
10.6%
8.8%
+1.7%
8.5–1
C
42%
3
GOT TOUGHLaRose Kinnon
3
Santana Jr Ricardo
8.0–1
13.0–1
7.6%
5.7%
+1.9%
12.2–1
C
63%
5
PASS ON BYMcGaughey III C R
5
Davis Dylan
15.0–1
39.0–1
7.0%
2.0%
+5.0%
13.2–1
C
42%
9
NO TIME TO LOSEMcPeek Kenneth G
9
Castellano Javier
6.0–1
10.0–1
6.1%
7.2%
-1.1%
15.4–1
C
42%
2
LOUDENMott William I
2
Lezcano Jose
10.0–1
12.0–1
6.0%
6.1%
-0.1%
15.7–1
C
42%
ArsenalPublished plan · four strategies
Using the published $51.00 race bankroll.
CONSERVATIVEPASS
LOW RISK
PASS — no sufficiently reliable positive-Edge runner meets the conservative threshold.
VALUEPASS
MEDIUM RISK
PASS — the card has contenders, but no positive-value A horse justifies a primary wager.
AGGRESSIVEPASS
HIGH RISK
PASS — Oracle does not disagree with the market strongly enough for concentrated risk.
EXACTA OPPORTUNITY$28.00
HIGH UPSIDE · $60.00 MAX
Maximum budget
$60.00
Recommended risk
$28.00
Amount held
$32.00
Combinations
7
Projected hit rate
13.9%
Primary key
#4 BARREL ROLL
Secondary key
#7 SHOCKED
Leverage horse
#4 BARREL ROLL
Avoid horse
#1 POWERLINE
Payout coverage
72 / 72 (100.0%)
Upside Core
BOMB#7 SHOCKED → #4 BARREL ROLL$4.00
Probability
2.1%
Probable payout
$291.00
Fair payout
$48.26
Expected ROI
502.9%
Speculative but model-supported secondary key over primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
BOMB#4 BARREL ROLL → #7 SHOCKED$4.00
Probability
2.0%
Probable payout
$277.00
Fair payout
$50.30
Expected ROI
450.7%
Speculative but model-supported primary key over secondary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
BOMB#4 BARREL ROLL → #6 AMERICAN HISTORY$4.00
Probability
2.0%
Probable payout
$119.00
Fair payout
$50.92
Expected ROI
133.7%
Speculative but model-supported primary key over plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
BOMB#4 BARREL ROLL → #5 PASS ON BY$4.00
Probability
1.2%
Probable payout
$351.00
Fair payout
$82.51
Expected ROI
325.4%
Speculative but model-supported primary key over value runner. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
BOMB#5 PASS ON BY → #4 BARREL ROLL$3.00
Probability
1.1%
Probable payout
$403.00
Fair payout
$90.58
Expected ROI
344.9%
Speculative but model-supported overlay over primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
BOMB#4 BARREL ROLL → #3 GOT TOUGH$3.00
Probability
1.3%
Probable payout
$150.00
Fair payout
$74.85
Expected ROI
100.4%
Speculative but model-supported primary key over plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Hit-Rate Layer
COVER#4 BARREL ROLL → #1 POWERLINE$6.00
Probability
4.2%
Probable payout
$39.00
Fair payout
$23.56
Expected ROI
65.5%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Oracle centers the race on #4 BARREL ROLL with #7 SHOCKED as the secondary key. #4 BARREL ROLL supplies the strongest market disagreement and is used as genuine winning leverage. The Upside Core uses 6 opinionated orders, while 1 separate cover orders protect plausible high-probability outcomes. The market favorite, #1 POWERLINE, remains a hit-rate consideration without replacing Oracle's #4 BARREL ROLL thesis.
Oracle's contender wins over a primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Oracle centers the race on #1 AMERICANEXPRESSION with #2 HEADS IN BEDS (FR) as the secondary key. #2 HEADS IN BEDS (FR) supplies the strongest market disagreement and is used as genuine winning leverage. The Upside Core uses 6 opinionated orders, while 3 separate cover orders protect plausible high-probability outcomes. The primary key is also the market's most likely winner.
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Oracle centers the race on #3 MADELINE'S AGENDA with #11 DEVILISH GRIN as the secondary key. #3 MADELINE'S AGENDA supplies the strongest market disagreement and is used as genuine winning leverage. The Upside Core uses 6 opinionated orders, while 1 separate cover orders protect plausible high-probability outcomes. The market favorite, #10 LOVEONTHELEFTBANK, remains a hit-rate consideration without replacing Oracle's #3 MADELINE'S AGENDA thesis.
Oracle's secondary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
VALUE#4 KEY COLONY BEACH → #6 KESHI$3.00
Probability
1.3%
Probable payout
$170.00
Fair payout
$77.64
Expected ROI
119.0%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#2 COASTAL CONFLICT → #7 WHITE TRUFFLES$3.00
Probability
0.5%
Probable payout
$473.00
Fair payout
$208.33
Expected ROI
127.0%
Oracle's secondary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Oracle centers the race on #4 KEY COLONY BEACH with #2 COASTAL CONFLICT as the secondary key. #2 COASTAL CONFLICT supplies the strongest market disagreement and is used as genuine winning leverage. The Upside Core uses 6 opinionated orders, while 0 separate cover orders protect plausible high-probability outcomes. The market favorite, #5 FOREVER CARINA, remains a hit-rate consideration without replacing Oracle's #4 KEY COLONY BEACH thesis.
Most likely#1 BOLD JOURNEY36.6% Oracle · 25.3% edge
Best value#1 BOLD JOURNEY36.6% Oracle · 25.3% edge
Best longshotNo qualifier—
Avoid#7 GUNMETAL8.7% Oracle · -7.2% edge
Oracle × EdgeManual tote snapshot · 8/22/2026, 8:12:07 PM · sorted by Oracle probability
Swipe horizontally to compare every metric →
#
Horse
Post
Jockey
ML reference
Working odds
Oracle
Market
Edge
Fair
Tier
Conf.
1
BOLD JOURNEYMott William I
1
Ortiz Jose L
10.0–1
6.0–1
36.6%
11.3%
+25.3%
1.7–1
A
94%
2
CAT ON TIMEJacobson David
2
Saez Luis
4.5–1
2.5–1
21.9%
22.6%
-0.7%
3.6–1
B
94%
6
NAKATOMIWard Wesley A
6
Gaffalione Tyler
3.5–1
2.5–1
16.8%
22.6%
-5.9%
5.0–1
B
94%
7
GUNMETALGreen Amelia J
7
Velazquez John R
4.5–1
4.0–1
8.7%
15.8%
-7.2%
10.6–1
C
94%
5
OVER AND OLLIEDutrow Jr Richard E
5
Prat Flavien
6.0–1
4.5–1
8.5%
14.4%
-5.9%
10.7–1
C
94%
4
ACOUSTIC AVERice Linda
4
Lezcano Jose
8.0–1
5.0–1
7.5%
13.2%
-5.7%
12.4–1
C
94%
3
TARANTINOSCRATCHED
3
Santana Jr Ricardo
15.0–1
SCRATCHED — excluded from Oracle generation
8
SACROSANCTSCRATCHED
8
Franco Manuel
2.5–1
SCRATCHED — excluded from Oracle generation
ArsenalPublished plan · four strategies
Using the published $51.00 race bankroll.
CONSERVATIVE$37.00
LOW RISK
WIN$18.00#1 BOLD JOURNEY
Primary exposure to the best confidence-adjusted overlay.
PLACE$14.00#1 BOLD JOURNEY
Place coverage reduces outcome variance while preserving the core thesis.
EXACTA$5.00#1 BOLD JOURNEY → #2 CAT ON TIME
Selective exacta: the overlay wins over Oracle's strongest alternate.
VALUE$46.00
MEDIUM RISK
WIN$15.00#1 BOLD JOURNEY
Highest estimated-EV A horse anchors the plan.
WIN / PLACE$20.00#2 CAT ON TIME
Win/place coverage protects a high-probability alternate outcome.
EXACTA$4.00#1 BOLD JOURNEY → #2 CAT ON TIME
A/B lane: the strongest overlay wins over the leading alternate.
EXACTA$3.00#2 CAT ON TIME → #1 BOLD JOURNEY
B→A saver protects the reversed top-two order.
EXACTA$2.00#2 CAT ON TIME → #6 NAKATOMI
Small B/B saver covers two jointly strong market-consensus outcomes.
EXACTA$1.00#2 CAT ON TIME → #7 GUNMETAL
Tiny C hedge: a strong B wins with the best qualifying C underneath.
EXACTA$1.00#6 NAKATOMI → #7 GUNMETAL
Second tiny C hedge diversifies only the top slot, not the C selection.
AGGRESSIVE$40.00
HIGH RISK
WIN$25.00#1 BOLD JOURNEY
Concentrated win exposure to Oracle's largest actionable disagreement.
EXACTA$15.00#1 BOLD JOURNEY → #2 CAT ON TIME
Press the race thesis: the overlay wins over the most likely alternate.
EXACTA OPPORTUNITY$33.00
HIGH UPSIDE · $60.00 MAX
Maximum budget
$60.00
Recommended risk
$33.00
Amount held
$27.00
Combinations
7
Projected hit rate
54.7%
Primary key
#1 BOLD JOURNEY
Secondary key
#2 CAT ON TIME
Leverage horse
#1 BOLD JOURNEY
Avoid horse
#7 GUNMETAL
Payout coverage
30 / 30 (100.0%)
Upside Core
LEVERAGE#1 BOLD JOURNEY → #2 CAT ON TIME$5.00
Probability
12.8%
Probable payout
$47.00
Fair payout
$7.79
Expected ROI
503.1%
Oracle's primary key wins over a secondary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#1 BOLD JOURNEY → #6 NAKATOMI$5.00
Probability
9.7%
Probable payout
$39.00
Fair payout
$10.36
Expected ROI
276.6%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#2 CAT ON TIME → #1 BOLD JOURNEY$5.00
Probability
10.2%
Probable payout
$43.00
Fair payout
$9.83
Expected ROI
337.4%
Oracle's secondary key wins over a primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#6 NAKATOMI → #1 BOLD JOURNEY$4.00
Probability
7.7%
Probable payout
$35.00
Fair payout
$12.95
Expected ROI
170.2%
Oracle's contender wins over a primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#1 BOLD JOURNEY → #4 ACOUSTIC AVE$4.00
Probability
4.4%
Probable payout
$52.00
Fair payout
$22.54
Expected ROI
130.7%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#1 BOLD JOURNEY → #5 OVER AND OLLIE$4.00
Probability
4.8%
Probable payout
$43.00
Fair payout
$20.96
Expected ROI
105.2%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Hit-Rate Layer
COVER#1 BOLD JOURNEY → #7 GUNMETAL$6.00
Probability
5.1%
Probable payout
$37.00
Fair payout
$19.62
Expected ROI
88.5%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Oracle centers the race on #1 BOLD JOURNEY with #2 CAT ON TIME as the secondary key. #1 BOLD JOURNEY supplies the strongest market disagreement and is used as genuine winning leverage. The Upside Core uses 6 opinionated orders, while 1 separate cover orders protect plausible high-probability outcomes. The market favorite, #2 CAT ON TIME, remains a hit-rate consideration without replacing Oracle's #1 BOLD JOURNEY thesis.
Best longshot#5 VERNON VALLEY7.6% Oracle · 4.7% edge
Avoid#9 MARIA CALLAS7.6% Oracle · -8.3% edge
Oracle × EdgeManual tote snapshot · 8/22/2026, 8:46:33 PM · sorted by Oracle probability
Swipe horizontally to compare every metric →
#
Horse
Post
Jockey
ML reference
Working odds
Oracle
Market
Edge
Fair
Tier
Conf.
3
ARINATARice Linda
3
Ortiz Jose L
6.0–1
2.0–1
52.6%
26.6%
+26.0%
0.9–1
A
69%
6
FAIRY GODMOTHERHandal Raymond
6
Prat Flavien
6.0–1
4.0–1
8.6%
15.9%
-7.3%
10.6–1
B
94%
9
MARIA CALLASBrown Chad C
9
Franco Manuel
5.0–1
4.0–1
7.6%
15.9%
-8.3%
12.1–1
B
80%
5
VERNON VALLEYMott Riley
5
Gaffalione Tyler
12.0–1
27.0–1
7.6%
2.8%
+4.7%
12.2–1
A
80%
11
TUTHILLTOWNMiceli Michael
11
Davis Dylan
4.0–1
7.0–1
5.1%
10.0%
-4.9%
18.8–1
C
86%
8
DANCINGWITHDESTINYDini Michael
8
Davis Katie
6.0–1
6.0–1
4.2%
11.4%
-7.2%
22.9–1
C
94%
2
JULIET ON APPROACHBegg James Bentley
2
Saez Luis
30.0–1
39.0–1
3.7%
2.0%
+1.7%
26.0–1
C
94%
1
SINEADAbreu Jorge R
1
Castellano Javier
20.0–1
27.0–1
3.5%
2.8%
+0.7%
27.4–1
C
94%
12
EMERGENCY NINEClement Miguel
12
Santana Jr Ricardo
6.0–1
13.0–1
3.4%
5.7%
-2.3%
28.4–1
C
80%
10
KAATERSKILLDunham Bob G
10
Hernandez Moreno O
50.0–1
51.0–1
2.2%
1.5%
+0.7%
44.0–1
C
82%
7
SCORCHAbreu Fernando
7
Lezcano Jose
15.0–1
14.0–1
1.5%
5.3%
-3.8%
65.5–1
C
94%
4
MOONLIGHT READYSCRATCHED
4
Rivera Dalila A
8.0–1
SCRATCHED — excluded from Oracle generation
13
MISS JANE HATHAWAYMTO
13
Rider TBA
6.0–1
MTO — excluded from Oracle generation
14
LIGHTNING STRIKEMTO
14
Franco Manuel
1.4–1
MTO — excluded from Oracle generation
ArsenalPublished plan · four strategies
Using the published $51.00 race bankroll.
CONSERVATIVE$37.00
LOW RISK
WIN$18.00#3 ARINATA
Primary exposure to the best confidence-adjusted overlay.
PLACE$14.00#3 ARINATA
Place coverage reduces outcome variance while preserving the core thesis.
EXACTA$5.00#3 ARINATA → #6 FAIRY GODMOTHER
Selective exacta: the overlay wins over Oracle's strongest alternate.
VALUE$44.00
MEDIUM RISK
WIN$15.00#5 VERNON VALLEY
Highest estimated-EV A horse anchors the plan.
WIN / PLACE$20.00#3 ARINATA
Win/place coverage protects a high-probability alternate outcome.
EXACTA$4.00#5 VERNON VALLEY → #3 ARINATA
A/B lane: the strongest overlay wins over the leading alternate.
EXACTA$3.00#3 ARINATA → #5 VERNON VALLEY
B→A saver protects the reversed top-two order.
EXACTA$2.00#3 ARINATA → #6 FAIRY GODMOTHER
Secondary A/B lane retains exposure if the second overlay owns the pace.
AGGRESSIVE$51.00
HIGH RISK
WIN$25.00#5 VERNON VALLEY
Concentrated win exposure to Oracle's largest actionable disagreement.
EXACTA$15.00#5 VERNON VALLEY → #3 ARINATA
Press the race thesis: the overlay wins over the most likely alternate.
EXACTA$7.00#3 ARINATA → #3 ARINATA
Asymmetric second lane uses another genuine overlay, not random field coverage.
WIN$4.00#3 ARINATA
Small secondary win position preserves upside from the contrarian A horse.
EXACTA OPPORTUNITY$40.00
HIGH UPSIDE · $60.00 MAX
Maximum budget
$60.00
Recommended risk
$40.00
Amount held
$20.00
Combinations
10
Projected hit rate
53.1%
Primary key
#3 ARINATA
Secondary key
#5 VERNON VALLEY
Leverage horse
#3 ARINATA
Avoid horse
#9 MARIA CALLAS
Payout coverage
110 / 110 (100.0%)
Upside Core
LEVERAGE#3 ARINATA → #5 VERNON VALLEY$5.00
Probability
8.2%
Probable payout
$79.00
Fair payout
$12.25
Expected ROI
545.0%
Oracle's primary key wins over a secondary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#5 VERNON VALLEY → #3 ARINATA$5.00
Probability
4.1%
Probable payout
$136.00
Fair payout
$24.15
Expected ROI
463.0%
Oracle's secondary key wins over a primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#3 ARINATA → #2 JULIET ON APPROACH$4.00
Probability
4.2%
Probable payout
$148.00
Fair payout
$23.81
Expected ROI
521.6%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
BOMB#2 JULIET ON APPROACH → #3 ARINATA$4.00
Probability
2.2%
Probable payout
$214.00
Fair payout
$45.96
Expected ROI
365.7%
Speculative but model-supported contender over primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#3 ARINATA → #1 SINEAD$4.00
Probability
3.9%
Probable payout
$100.00
Fair payout
$25.93
Expected ROI
285.6%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
BOMB#1 SINEAD → #3 ARINATA$4.00
Probability
2.0%
Probable payout
$150.00
Fair payout
$49.70
Expected ROI
201.8%
Speculative but model-supported contender over primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Hit-Rate Layer
COVER#3 ARINATA → #6 FAIRY GODMOTHER$5.00
Probability
9.7%
Probable payout
$17.00
Fair payout
$10.32
Expected ROI
64.8%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
COVER#3 ARINATA → #9 MARIA CALLAS$1.00
Probability
8.3%
Probable payout
$14.00
Fair payout
$12.05
Expected ROI
16.1%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
COVER#3 ARINATA → #11 TUTHILLTOWN$4.00
Probability
5.7%
Probable payout
$25.00
Fair payout
$17.68
Expected ROI
41.4%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
COVER#3 ARINATA → #8 DANCINGWITHDESTINY$4.00
Probability
4.9%
Probable payout
$39.00
Fair payout
$20.53
Expected ROI
90.0%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Oracle centers the race on #3 ARINATA with #5 VERNON VALLEY as the secondary key. #3 ARINATA supplies the strongest market disagreement and is used as genuine winning leverage. The Upside Core uses 6 opinionated orders, while 4 separate cover orders protect plausible high-probability outcomes. The primary key is also the market's most likely winner.
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
BOMB#6 SILVER TALENT → #1 FILOSO$4.00
Probability
0.9%
Probable payout
$239.00
Fair payout
$116.28
Expected ROI
105.5%
Speculative but model-supported primary key over plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Hit-Rate Layer
COVER#6 SILVER TALENT → #5 STIMULATE$3.00
Probability
7.6%
Probable payout
$21.00
Fair payout
$13.22
Expected ROI
58.8%
Oracle's primary key wins over a secondary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
COVER#4 FREDDIE B → #6 SILVER TALENT$6.00
Probability
4.6%
Probable payout
$42.00
Fair payout
$21.95
Expected ROI
91.3%
Oracle's overlay wins over a primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
COVER#6 SILVER TALENT → #9 PLAYA DEL MAR$4.00
Probability
4.3%
Probable payout
$27.00
Fair payout
$23.30
Expected ROI
15.9%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Oracle centers the race on #6 SILVER TALENT with #5 STIMULATE as the secondary key. #6 SILVER TALENT supplies the strongest market disagreement and is used as genuine winning leverage. The Upside Core uses 6 opinionated orders, while 3 separate cover orders protect plausible high-probability outcomes. The market favorite, #5 STIMULATE, remains a hit-rate consideration without replacing Oracle's #6 SILVER TALENT thesis.
Best longshot#2 SUNLIT UPLANDS (IRE)10.0% Oracle · 1.2% edge
Avoid#5 AND ONE MORE TIME7.1% Oracle · -4.2% edge
Oracle × EdgeManual tote snapshot · 8/22/2026, 10:01:26 PM · sorted by Oracle probability
Swipe horizontally to compare every metric →
#
Horse
Post
Jockey
ML reference
Working odds
Oracle
Market
Edge
Fair
Tier
Conf.
6
SEGESTABrown Chad C
6
Prat Flavien
1.4–1
1.0–1
39.9%
39.6%
+0.3%
1.5–1
B
94%
3
DEEP SATINDeVaux Cherie
3
Ortiz Jose L
5.0–1
3.5–1
27.1%
17.6%
+9.5%
2.7–1
A
94%
7
GRAYOSHBrown Chad C
7
Gaffalione Tyler
8.0–1
6.0–1
10.9%
11.3%
-0.5%
8.2–1
B
94%
2
SUNLIT UPLANDS (IRE)Williams Stuart C
2
Velazquez John R
10.0–1
8.0–1
10.0%
8.8%
+1.2%
9.0–1
C
88%
5
AND ONE MORE TIMECasse Mark E
5
Castellano Javier
3.0–1
6.0–1
7.1%
11.3%
-4.2%
13.1–1
C
94%
1
OZARA (IRE)Clement Miguel
1
Davis Dylan
8.0–1
10.0–1
3.6%
7.2%
-3.6%
27.0–1
C
94%
8
LONG AGO (GB)Morey William E
8
Carmouche Kendrick
12.0–1
18.0–1
1.5%
4.2%
-2.6%
64.2–1
C
94%
4
PLAY WITH FIRESCRATCHED
4
Franco Manuel
15.0–1
SCRATCHED — excluded from Oracle generation
9
SCALABLEMTO
9
Rider TBA
0.8–1
MTO — excluded from Oracle generation
ArsenalPublished plan · four strategies
Using the published $51.00 race bankroll.
CONSERVATIVE$37.00
LOW RISK
WIN$18.00#3 DEEP SATIN
Primary exposure to the best confidence-adjusted overlay.
PLACE$14.00#3 DEEP SATIN
Place coverage reduces outcome variance while preserving the core thesis.
EXACTA$5.00#3 DEEP SATIN → #6 SEGESTA
Selective exacta: the overlay wins over Oracle's strongest alternate.
VALUE$46.00
MEDIUM RISK
WIN$15.00#3 DEEP SATIN
Highest estimated-EV A horse anchors the plan.
WIN / PLACE$20.00#6 SEGESTA
Win/place coverage protects a high-probability alternate outcome.
EXACTA$4.00#3 DEEP SATIN → #6 SEGESTA
A/B lane: the strongest overlay wins over the leading alternate.
EXACTA$3.00#6 SEGESTA → #3 DEEP SATIN
B→A saver protects the reversed top-two order.
EXACTA$2.00#6 SEGESTA → #7 GRAYOSH
Small B/B saver covers two jointly strong market-consensus outcomes.
EXACTA$1.00#6 SEGESTA → #2 SUNLIT UPLANDS (IRE)
Tiny C hedge: a strong B wins with the best qualifying C underneath.
EXACTA$1.00#7 GRAYOSH → #2 SUNLIT UPLANDS (IRE)
Second tiny C hedge diversifies only the top slot, not the C selection.
AGGRESSIVE$40.00
HIGH RISK
WIN$25.00#3 DEEP SATIN
Concentrated win exposure to Oracle's largest actionable disagreement.
EXACTA$15.00#3 DEEP SATIN → #6 SEGESTA
Press the race thesis: the overlay wins over the most likely alternate.
EXACTA OPPORTUNITY$30.00
HIGH UPSIDE · $60.00 MAX
Maximum budget
$60.00
Recommended risk
$30.00
Amount held
$30.00
Combinations
7
Projected hit rate
53.6%
Primary key
#3 DEEP SATIN
Secondary key
#6 SEGESTA
Leverage horse
#3 DEEP SATIN
Avoid horse
#5 AND ONE MORE TIME
Payout coverage
42 / 42 (100.0%)
Upside Core
LEVERAGE#3 DEEP SATIN → #6 SEGESTA$5.00
Probability
14.9%
Probable payout
$11.00
Fair payout
$6.72
Expected ROI
63.7%
Oracle's primary key wins over a secondary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#3 DEEP SATIN → #2 SUNLIT UPLANDS (IRE)$4.00
Probability
3.8%
Probable payout
$54.00
Fair payout
$26.65
Expected ROI
102.6%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#2 SUNLIT UPLANDS (IRE) → #3 DEEP SATIN$4.00
Probability
3.1%
Probable payout
$62.00
Fair payout
$32.64
Expected ROI
90.0%
Oracle's contender wins over a primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#3 DEEP SATIN → #7 GRAYOSH$4.00
Probability
4.0%
Probable payout
$45.00
Fair payout
$24.90
Expected ROI
80.7%
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#6 SEGESTA → #3 DEEP SATIN$4.00
Probability
18.2%
Probable payout
$7.00
Fair payout
$5.50
Expected ROI
27.3%
Oracle's secondary key wins over a primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#7 GRAYOSH → #3 DEEP SATIN$3.00
Probability
3.1%
Probable payout
$46.00
Fair payout
$31.97
Expected ROI
43.9%
Oracle's contender wins over a primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Hit-Rate Layer
COVER#6 SEGESTA → #2 SUNLIT UPLANDS (IRE)$6.00
Probability
6.6%
Probable payout
$18.00
Fair payout
$15.14
Expected ROI
18.9%
Oracle's secondary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Oracle centers the race on #3 DEEP SATIN with #6 SEGESTA as the secondary key. #3 DEEP SATIN supplies the strongest market disagreement and is used as genuine winning leverage. The Upside Core uses 6 opinionated orders, while 1 separate cover orders protect plausible high-probability outcomes. The market favorite, #6 SEGESTA, remains a hit-rate consideration without replacing Oracle's #3 DEEP SATIN thesis.
Most likely#6 COUNTING STARS48.0% Oracle · -10.0% edge
Best value#3 MEASURE17.2% Oracle · 10.5% edge
Best longshot#3 MEASURE17.2% Oracle · 10.5% edge
Avoid#4 MY GUN'S LOADED6.4% Oracle · -13.9% edge
Oracle × EdgeManual tote snapshot · 8/22/2026, 10:37:44 PM · sorted by Oracle probability
Swipe horizontally to compare every metric →
#
Horse
Post
Jockey
ML reference
Working odds
Oracle
Market
Edge
Fair
Tier
Conf.
6
COUNTING STARSCasse Mark E
6
Ortiz Jr Irad
0.5–1
0.4–1
48.0%
58.0%
-10.0%
1.1–1
B
94%
3
MEASURECasse Mark E
3
Prat Flavien
6.0–1
11.0–1
17.2%
6.8%
+10.5%
4.8–1
A
87%
2
ATI GIRLMott William I
2
Velazquez John R
10.0–1
9.0–1
14.1%
8.1%
+6.0%
6.1–1
A
94%
5
A. P.'S GIRLEurton Peter
5
Gaffalione Tyler
12.0–1
18.0–1
10.9%
4.3%
+6.6%
8.2–1
A
86%
4
MY GUN'S LOADEDBrown Chad C
4
Franco Manuel
3.0–1
3.0–1
6.4%
20.3%
-13.9%
14.7–1
C
66%
1
NYCONBeckman D Whitworth
1
Davis Dylan
20.0–1
31.0–1
3.4%
2.5%
+0.9%
28.2–1
C
94%
ArsenalPublished plan · four strategies
Using the published $51.00 race bankroll.
CONSERVATIVE$37.00
LOW RISK
WIN$18.00#3 MEASURE
Primary exposure to the best confidence-adjusted overlay.
PLACE$14.00#3 MEASURE
Place coverage reduces outcome variance while preserving the core thesis.
EXACTA$5.00#3 MEASURE → #6 COUNTING STARS
Selective exacta: the overlay wins over Oracle's strongest alternate.
VALUE$46.00
MEDIUM RISK
WIN$15.00#5 A. P.'S GIRL
Highest estimated-EV A horse anchors the plan.
WIN / PLACE$20.00#3 MEASURE
Win/place coverage protects a high-probability alternate outcome.
EXACTA$4.00#5 A. P.'S GIRL → #3 MEASURE
A/B lane: the strongest overlay wins over the leading alternate.
EXACTA$3.00#3 MEASURE → #5 A. P.'S GIRL
B→A saver protects the reversed top-two order.
EXACTA$2.00#3 MEASURE → #6 COUNTING STARS
Secondary A/B lane retains exposure if the second overlay owns the pace.
EXACTA$2.00#2 ATI GIRL → #6 COUNTING STARS
A3 kicker: a qualified third overlay wins over the strongest B contender.
AGGRESSIVE$51.00
HIGH RISK
WIN$25.00#5 A. P.'S GIRL
Concentrated win exposure to Oracle's largest actionable disagreement.
EXACTA$15.00#5 A. P.'S GIRL → #6 COUNTING STARS
Press the race thesis: the overlay wins over the most likely alternate.
EXACTA$7.00#3 MEASURE → #6 COUNTING STARS
Asymmetric second lane uses another genuine overlay, not random field coverage.
WIN$4.00#3 MEASURE
Small secondary win position preserves upside from the contrarian A horse.
EXACTA OPPORTUNITY$37.00
HIGH UPSIDE · $60.00 MAX
Maximum budget
$60.00
Recommended risk
$37.00
Amount held
$23.00
Combinations
9
Projected hit rate
56.9%
Primary key
#6 COUNTING STARS
Secondary key
#3 MEASURE
Leverage horse
#3 MEASURE
Avoid horse
#4 MY GUN'S LOADED
Payout coverage
30 / 30 (100.0%)
Upside Core
BOMB#3 MEASURE → #5 A. P.'S GIRL$5.00
Probability
2.4%
Probable payout
$92.00
Fair payout
$42.23
Expected ROI
117.9%
Speculative but model-supported secondary key over value runner. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
BOMB#5 A. P.'S GIRL → #3 MEASURE$4.00
Probability
2.0%
Probable payout
$98.00
Fair payout
$49.90
Expected ROI
96.4%
Speculative but model-supported overlay over secondary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#3 MEASURE → #2 ATI GIRL$4.00
Probability
3.0%
Probable payout
$57.00
Fair payout
$33.20
Expected ROI
71.7%
Oracle's secondary key wins over a value runner. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
BOMB#2 ATI GIRL → #3 MEASURE$4.00
Probability
2.7%
Probable payout
$61.00
Fair payout
$36.44
Expected ROI
67.4%
Speculative but model-supported overlay over secondary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
LEVERAGE#3 MEASURE → #6 COUNTING STARS$4.00
Probability
9.7%
Probable payout
$15.00
Fair payout
$10.28
Expected ROI
45.9%
Oracle's secondary key wins over a primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
VALUE#6 COUNTING STARS → #5 A. P.'S GIRL$3.00
Probability
10.3%
Probable payout
$17.00
Fair payout
$9.72
Expected ROI
75.0%
Oracle's primary key wins over a value runner. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Hit-Rate Layer
COVER#6 COUNTING STARS → #2 ATI GIRL$3.00
Probability
13.1%
Probable payout
$9.00
Fair payout
$7.65
Expected ROI
17.6%
Oracle's primary key wins over a value runner. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
COVER#2 ATI GIRL → #6 COUNTING STARS$5.00
Probability
7.8%
Probable payout
$22.00
Fair payout
$12.88
Expected ROI
70.8%
Oracle's overlay wins over a primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
COVER#5 A. P.'S GIRL → #6 COUNTING STARS$5.00
Probability
6.0%
Probable payout
$47.00
Fair payout
$16.78
Expected ROI
180.1%
Oracle's overlay wins over a primary key. The probable payout exceeds its modeled risk threshold.
Oracle centers the race on #6 COUNTING STARS with #3 MEASURE as the secondary key. #3 MEASURE supplies the strongest market disagreement and is used as genuine winning leverage. The Upside Core uses 6 opinionated orders, while 3 separate cover orders protect plausible high-probability outcomes. The primary key is also the market's most likely winner.
Oracle pick#1 STAND THE RAIN22.1% Oracle · 7.9% edge
Most likely#1 STAND THE RAIN22.1% Oracle · 7.9% edge
Best value#1 STAND THE RAIN22.1% Oracle · 7.9% edge
Best longshot#3 HOME WRECKER10.9% Oracle · 3.8% edge
Avoid#2 PRIME CONNECTION4.3% Oracle · -4.4% edge
Oracle × EdgeMorning-line baseline · preliminary · sorted by Oracle probability
Swipe horizontally to compare every metric →
#
Horse
Post
Jockey
ML reference
Working odds
Oracle
Market
Edge
Fair
Tier
Conf.
1
STAND THE RAINClement Miguel
1
Ortiz Jose L
4.5–1
4.5–1
22.1%
14.2%
+7.9%
3.5–1
A
87%
5
SECRETLY DELIGHTEDCasse Mark E
5
Castellano Javier
3.0–1
3.0–1
16.8%
19.6%
-2.8%
5.0–1
B
76%
6
MARY LOIS (IRE)Brown Chad C
6
Prat Flavien
3.5–1
3.5–1
14.3%
17.4%
-3.1%
6.0–1
B
84%
4
FANGO CREEKMott William I
4
Saez Luis
4.0–1
4.0–1
13.1%
15.7%
-2.6%
6.6–1
C
77%
8
OSMOSIS (FR)Pletcher Todd A
8
Gaffalione Tyler
4.5–1
4.5–1
12.7%
14.2%
-1.6%
6.9–1
C
77%
3
HOME WRECKERGargan Danny
3
Carmouche Kendrick
10.0–1
10.0–1
10.9%
7.1%
+3.8%
8.2–1
A
94%
2
PRIME CONNECTIONRice Linda
2
Lezcano Jose
8.0–1
8.0–1
4.3%
8.7%
-4.4%
22.0–1
C
80%
7
RIYAH AL NILSeyler Douglas J
7
Bridgmohan Shaun
50.0–1
50.0–1
3.2%
1.5%
+1.6%
30.6–1
C
86%
9
MIA SOPHIADeLauro Edward J
9
Gutierrez Reylu
50.0–1
50.0–1
2.6%
1.5%
+1.1%
37.1–1
C
90%
ArsenalPublished plan · four strategies
Using the published $51.00 race bankroll.
CONSERVATIVE$37.00
LOW RISK · PRELIMINARY
WIN$18.00#1 STAND THE RAIN
Primary exposure to the best confidence-adjusted overlay.
PLACE$14.00#1 STAND THE RAIN
Place coverage reduces outcome variance while preserving the core thesis.
EXACTA$5.00#1 STAND THE RAIN → #5 SECRETLY DELIGHTED
Selective exacta: the overlay wins over Oracle's strongest alternate.
VALUE$44.00
MEDIUM RISK · PRELIMINARY
WIN$15.00#1 STAND THE RAIN
Highest estimated-EV A horse anchors the plan.
WIN / PLACE$20.00#3 HOME WRECKER
Win/place coverage protects a high-probability alternate outcome.
EXACTA$4.00#1 STAND THE RAIN → #3 HOME WRECKER
A/B lane: the strongest overlay wins over the leading alternate.
EXACTA$3.00#3 HOME WRECKER → #1 STAND THE RAIN
B→A saver protects the reversed top-two order.
EXACTA$2.00#3 HOME WRECKER → #5 SECRETLY DELIGHTED
Secondary A/B lane retains exposure if the second overlay owns the pace.
AGGRESSIVE$51.00
HIGH RISK · PRELIMINARY
WIN$25.00#1 STAND THE RAIN
Concentrated win exposure to Oracle's largest actionable disagreement.
EXACTA$15.00#1 STAND THE RAIN → #5 SECRETLY DELIGHTED
Press the race thesis: the overlay wins over the most likely alternate.
EXACTA$7.00#3 HOME WRECKER → #5 SECRETLY DELIGHTED
Asymmetric second lane uses another genuine overlay, not random field coverage.
WIN$4.00#3 HOME WRECKER
Small secondary win position preserves upside from the contrarian A horse.
EXACTA OPPORTUNITY$35.00
HIGH UPSIDE · $60.00 MAX · PRELIMINARY
Maximum budget
$60.00
Recommended risk
$35.00
Amount held
$25.00
Combinations
10
Projected hit rate
25.2%
Primary key
#1 STAND THE RAIN
Secondary key
#3 HOME WRECKER
Leverage horse
#1 STAND THE RAIN
Avoid horse
#2 PRIME CONNECTION
Payout coverage
0 / 72 (0.0%)
Upside Core
BOMB#7 RIYAH AL NIL → #1 STAND THE RAIN$4.00
Probability
0.7%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$145.35
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Speculative but model-supported contender over primary key. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
BOMB#9 MIA SOPHIA → #1 STAND THE RAIN$4.00
Probability
0.6%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$171.23
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Speculative but model-supported contender over primary key. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
BOMB#3 HOME WRECKER → #1 STAND THE RAIN$4.00
Probability
2.8%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$35.26
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Speculative but model-supported secondary key over primary key. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
LEVERAGE#1 STAND THE RAIN → #3 HOME WRECKER$4.00
Probability
3.3%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$30.56
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's primary key wins over a secondary key. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
VALUE#3 HOME WRECKER → #7 RIYAH AL NIL$3.00
Probability
0.4%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$268.82
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's secondary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
BOMB#1 STAND THE RAIN → #7 RIYAH AL NIL$3.00
Probability
0.9%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$115.74
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Speculative but model-supported primary key over plausible underneath horse. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
Hit-Rate Layer
COVER#1 STAND THE RAIN → #5 SECRETLY DELIGHTED$4.00
Probability
4.6%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$21.76
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
COVER#1 STAND THE RAIN → #6 MARY LOIS (IRE)$3.00
Probability
4.1%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$24.13
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
COVER#5 SECRETLY DELIGHTED → #1 STAND THE RAIN$3.00
Probability
4.1%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$24.63
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's contender wins over a primary key. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
COVER#1 STAND THE RAIN → #4 FANGO CREEK$3.00
Probability
3.8%
Probable payout
Unavailable
Fair payout
$26.65
Expected ROI
Unpriced
Oracle's primary key wins over a plausible underneath horse. Win-market leverage and the ordered model probability support the pairing.
Oracle centers the race on #1 STAND THE RAIN with #3 HOME WRECKER as the secondary key. #1 STAND THE RAIN supplies the strongest market disagreement and is used as genuine winning leverage. The Upside Core uses 6 opinionated orders, while 4 separate cover orders protect plausible high-probability outcomes. The market favorite, #5 SECRETLY DELIGHTED, remains a hit-rate consideration without replacing Oracle's #1 STAND THE RAIN thesis.
Payout pricing unavailable — opportunity ranking based on model and win-market pricing. Win market snapshot 8/20/2026, 4:27:52 PM. Exacta probabilities: plackett-luce-simulation-v1 (Oracle-based approximation).